Rocket Lab is undergoing a significant transformation beyond its initial focus on small satellite launches, which investors have yet to fully recognize. The company is building an end-to-end space infrastructure through acquisitions and a strong defense pipeline.
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The current share price of Rocket Lab is $63.55, but a price target set by 24/7 Wall St. predicts it could rise to $120.88, indicating a potential upside of 90.21%. This target reflects a 50% confidence level based on the execution risk and opportunity ahead for the company.
Despite shares dropping by 20.81% over the past month and 8.9% year-to-date, Rocket Lab reported impressive revenue figures. In Q2 FY26, the company's revenue reached a record $234.07 million, marking a 62% year-over-year increase. Its backlog also grew to $2.36 billion, a 137% rise, with management announcing over $1 billion in new contracts booked in Q3, including significant awards from Flatellite and the SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 contract.
CEO Peter Beck emphasized a multi-faceted strategy focusing on access to space, hardware integration in space, and space-based applications, which will be supplemented by the acquisition of Iridium. Iridium's contribution of 66 satellites and $870 million in annual revenue strengthens Rocket Lab’s positioning in the market. The Neutron rocket is expected to deliver by Q4 2026, enhancing the company’s defense revenue prospects.
However, risks remain, primarily concerning the launch timeline for Neutron, which management acknowledges is tightening. The integration of acquisitions such as Mynaric and Motiv will also be complex, and the company reported a $49.26 million net loss in Q2. Although acquisition costs increased the loss, non-GAAP gross margins showed an improvement to 41.5%. A conservative bear scenario sets the price at $94.76.
Comparatively, Planet Labs shows a solid recurring revenue model, reporting $116.05 million in Q2 FY27. Its market cap stands at $5.45 billion, considerably lower than Rocket Lab’s $38 billion, hinting at the premium investors are placing on Rocket Lab’s broader applications. Intuitive Machines demonstrates strong revenue growth in defense and lunar infrastructure, with a market cap of $2.23 billion. This disparity in valuations emphasizes the strategic value embedded in Rocket Lab’s price target.
Looking ahead to 2026-2030, 24/7 Wall St. projects significant growth targets for Rocket Lab, with prices anticipated to reach as high as $330.15 by 2030, contingent on successful launches and acquisitions. Key upcoming catalysts include the delivery of Neutron and the completion of the Iridium acquisition, which could influence their trajectory.