Report Predicts Significant Decline in Budget Smartphone Shipments by 2030

The report attributes the disappearance of budget smartphones to several factors stemming from an industry downturn anticipated in 2026-2027. Rising costs of mobile chipsets and memory, increased hardware requirements, and phone manufacturers scaling back on unprofitable models contribute to the challenges faced by entry-level devices. As the costs of components rise, manufacturers find it increasingly difficult to sustain cheaper models.

Consumer behavior is also shifting; many users are opting to delay upgrades and prolong the life of their current devices. Alternatives such as certified refurbished and second-hand phones are gaining popularity. Additionally, some buyers are moving to higher price tiers through installment payments.

Yang Wang, Principal Analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted that while the overall smartphone market will recover, the affordable segment will not regain its prior significance. The focus is shifting towards better-equipped mainstream and premium devices, although these higher tiers cannot completely compensate for the loss of volume in the budget category. This trend raises concerns about digital access, particularly for first-time users in lower-income markets, as the absence of affordable smartphones could hinder their ability to connect online.

Overall, Counterpoint estimates that global smartphone deliveries will reach approximately 1.20 billion units by 2030, closely trailing the benchmark levels set in 2025. The stagnation in mid-range devices indicates that not all lost budget volume will be compensated by higher-tier models, particularly as demand from first-time buyers dwindles. The diminishing availability of sub-$200 devices poses a significant challenge to increasing mobile internet access, especially for those currently reliant on basic feature phones.