Apple introduced its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, during its fall launch event on September 7, as part of a highly anticipated entry into the foldable market that has been developing for seven years. The starting price for the iPhone Duo is 15,999 yuan, with the highest configuration priced at 26,499 yuan. It features a 7.6-inch inner screen when unfolded and is comparable in size to a passport when folded, making it the most expensive iPhone to date and signaling an ‘ultra-premium’ positioning in the foldable category.
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Prior to Apple’s entry, Chinese manufacturers had already established a significant presence with a variety of foldable designs. Huawei dominated the high-end market with its Mate XT 2 tri-fold model and the Pura X series, while Xiaomi aimed to enhance its premium offerings with its 18 Fold, featuring a 'mid-fold' design. Vivo and OPPO focused on user experience, with one improving large-screen efficiency and the other minimizing crease visibility through innovative hinge technology. Overall, Chinese manufacturers have led in developing foldable devices, while Apple is just beginning.
Apple’s entry signifies the potential transition of foldables from niche products towards mainstream acceptance. Since Samsung launched the Galaxy Fold in 2019, only Huawei and Samsung have consistently leveraged foldable technology for brand premiumization. According to Counterpoint Research, foldable smartphones are expected to see cumulative global shipments exceeding 100 million units by the end of 2026. Samsung's market share is projected to decrease from 40% to 38%, while Apple may capture 25% in its first year, with Huawei maintaining about 22%.
This competitive landscape indicates that foldable screens are no longer a market for casual entrants but are becoming a domain where strong premium branding and robust supply chains are essential. The depth of product offerings and clear positioning in user scenarios will be more critical than the order of entry. For instance, Huawei's Mate XT 2 Ultimate Master was released shortly after Apple’s announcement, directly targeting Apple's customer base.
In addition to competitive product offerings, recent data suggests that market shares can shift rapidly. For example, Honor significantly increased its market share from 9.1% to 21% thanks to its Magic V6 model, which successfully catered to user needs with a larger battery and lightweight design. This demonstrates that innovation and differentiation can allow newer entrants to quickly expand their market presence, regardless of the first-mover advantage.
As manufacturers continue to develop foldable technology, the focus is shifting from purely functional designs to enhancing user utility and integration with software. Overcoming hardware challenges like creases has become a priority, while the user experience for foldable screens is also evolving. Recent advancements in hinge technology have led to significant improvements, making creases less of a dealbreaker for consumers.
While foldable smartphones have garnered attention, the overall market dynamics are complex. The rising costs of components, particularly memory chips, have affected pricing structures across the industry. Counterpoint's analysis indicates that despite a significant increase in memory costs, higher-end models have some leeway for price adjustments. Ultimately, the success of foldable phones will hinge on their market penetration rates, which still remain in single digits, suggesting substantial growth potential.
Apple’s recent entry has prompted expectations for a considerable boost in demand, which could positively impact component suppliers as competition intensifies in the foldable smartphone market.