Counterpoint Research has released its first public sales estimate for Apple's upcoming foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, suggesting that around 6 million units could be sold by the end of 2026. This figure pertains only to the final months of that year and does not account for a full annual sales cycle. It is important to note that this forecast is an independent analyst estimate and has not been confirmed by Apple, which has yet to establish any sales targets or reveal official specifications for the device.

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The significance of the 6 million-unit estimate is amplified by insights from Bloomberg, which quotes Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam. He indicates that the success of these projected sales is heavily reliant on Apple's ability to scale up production of the new hardware effectively. Without a successful increase in manufacturing, the forecast may not materialize as anticipated.

According to Counterpoint Research and Bloomberg's analysis, the 6 million-unit projection entails:

- It covers only the closing months of 2026, not a complete twelve-month sales period.

- It represents about 25% of the anticipated global foldable smartphone shipments for that year.

- If achieved, it would position Apple as the second largest player in the global foldable market, following Samsung.

Currently, the undisclosed starting price of the iPhone Duo is estimated to be $1,999. A separate report from Jiemian News, which remains unverified by Apple or Foxconn, indicated that Foxconn's assembly yield for the device was slightly above 60% as of mid-September.

While 6 million units may seem modest compared to Apple's overall production capacity, which is projected to reach around 80 million iPhones in the combined fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, foldable devices face unique challenges. This category requires tighter manufacturing tolerances and specialized components such as flexible displays and hinges, leading to lower production volumes across the segment.

Concerns regarding production risks are underscored by an unverified supply chain report, which raises uncertainty about the device's early availability. Citing the Jiemian News report, the assembly yield may affect supply levels in the weeks following the product launch, regardless of consumer demand. As potential buyers consider the iPhone Duo, they should also take into account their charging habits and the longevity of the battery at its anticipated price point.